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Player Evaluation: Bryan Bickell
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Monday, 09.10.2012 | 11:00 AM | Features
This season Bickell's contract expires and he is set to become a UFA for the first time in his career. Despite that fact, there's no reason to believe that Bryan is poised to have a career year. The wing slots are beginning to look crowded these days with Sharp, Kane, Hossa, Stalberg, Shaw, Saad, Hayes, Frolik, Mayers, Carcillo, and Bollig prepared to line-up at any moment and Bickell could struggle to see ice time in the line-up at all if he begins to slip up, let alone enough looks in an offensive role.
Last season Bickell had a down year offensively and defensively compared to his 2010-2011 campaign. His totals in every category dropped significantly, not only his offensive contributions but also the crucial areas of the game such as hitting to giveaway/takeaway ratio. As a result his ice-time dropped by just over a minute and a half, even causing Quenneville to break up his checking line at some points in the season. This year won't get any better for him unless he fulfills the potential that the Blackhawks intended all along and expected after his first full season -- you know, that potential that made Troy Brouwer expendable.
It's not all doom and gloom for Bickell. He's a good character guy, very well liked, and he will get solid chance this season to stay in the line-up, but it's harder to play when you are looking behind your back and watching your Twitter buddies (Jimmy Hayes, Andrew Shaw) quickly vaulting ahead on the depth chart and poised to take your slot. Don't get me wrong either, I think Bickell is a good NHL player and he certainly has a place on this team as it stands, but if history repeats itself it's pretty clear that the Blackhawks organization categorizes these types of players as "replaceable" rather than the type of player that they want to keep. The question on my mind is: Do the Blackhawks think Jimmy Hayes makes Bickell expendable?
At this point, I would find it hard to believe that Bickell would consistently find himself in the line-up by the end of this year, much like the way his career has unfolded perhaps this is the year that Joel Quenneville decides that it's time to use him inconsistently.
PREDICTION: 34 GAMES | 4 GOALS | 3 ASSISTS | 7 POINTS | MINUS-4
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20 Comments | Join the discussion
I know everyone is going to take this out of context, but to me, Bickell is like Daze, not skill wise but size wise, in that everyone wants him to be that big bruiser and use his size to stand in front of the net and push everyone around and all this, but it just doesn't seem to be his game. Which is too bad because he doesn't have the skill of Daze.
Fine be big and not hit but then be an offensive threat. Bickell neither plays a big man's game or is an offensive threat. What does he bring to the table outside of being a body to fill a roster spot.
I am very good at repeating things you say.
Bickell brings a lot more uselessness, that should count for something.
Bickell was 4th on the team (tied with Hossa) in 2011 with 15 EV goals. That's the 2nd most for a Hawks 3rd liner in at least 20 yrs - and only three 3rd liners have even surpassed 10 goals in that time period.
In 2012 he was tied for 7th on the team with 9 EV goals. Since there are 6 forwards on the top 2 lines, that number is relatively where it should be for a solid 3rd liner. Bolland also had "only" 9 EV goals.
Only 29 players in the league had less than 40% Offensive Zone Starts (the toughest zone assignments/defensive specialists) in 2012. Of those players only 2 had positive raw Corsi ratings. Bickell is one of them (0.58).
Of those 29 players, only 6 were LWs, and only 2 faced as difficult Quality of Competition as Bickell. Corsi Ratings for those other 5 LWs: -17, -13, -12, -18, and -22.
Bickell's defensive numbers were actually better in 2012 if you consider the crappy goaltending. The entire team was subject to this effect, so to single out one guy and state that his numbers were "worse" when the entire team was pretty much "worse" isn't very fair IMO.
Bickell had the 3rd highest production per salary in the entire league in 2011. He's the lowest paid player on the Blackhawks, yet people seem to expect the production level of a $3M player. Everyone would prefer Kopecky apparently?
Only 2 LWs in the entire league have had as difficult of defensive assignments as Bickell over the past 2 years. If Q trusts him on the checking line - which is the backbone of his game strategy, then he's probably a much better player than you're giving him credit for being.
- signed, CNS
Unofficial Bryan Bickell apologist
Great first post and welcome aboard.
I don't disagree one bit with your assessment of his rookie year, in fact I acknowledged his year in 2010-2011 and stated that he would need to get back to that level if he wants to keep a roster spot.
As far as his 128 hits last year being 2nd on the team, note that he dropped off by 50 hits from 2010-2011 so it's fair to say that he was a bit inconsistent in that regard. If you want to look at hits per TOI, look no further than Shaw and Carcillo, two players that would have led the team if they were available all year, and Hayes was on pace for about the same total as Bickell.
Since Brouwer's departure, Bickell was expected to step up and fill the physical void he left behind. He simply didn't do it and his offensive production dropped off significantly. Two areas of his game that could be replaced right there -- granted he doesn't return to his 2010-2011 form. That said, I do see your point about offensive zone starts, although that number only changed by about 6%, so I'm not sure that completely explains his drop off in offensive production, but it did have an effect.
I also acknowledged that he is a very good checking line forward and does well on the defensive end of the ice as well as providing a lot of grit along the boards and he is one of the better players at digging the puck out of the corners. I don't know if anyone can play at the same level in the defensive end, but it might be worth testing if they can provide more in the areas that Bickell seems to be lacking recently. His salary means nothing when there are comparable salaries in Hayes, Shaw, and Saad coming up and itching to take his spot. The whole point was not a matter of whether Bickell was a good player or not, it's whether or not his time in Chicago is nearing an end with all the young talent coming up and if he could continue to fight for his ice-time.
Well, you're also expecting 20 goals and no Blackhawks 3rd liner has ever done that, at least in the modern era. So to expect that from a any, save a minimum wage player is extremely unrealistic.
Seabs had 30 fewer Hits in 2012 than 2011 and with a slight increase in TOI. Ladd was Bickell's predecessor and never breached the low 100's in hits, yet he was considered tough and physical (and was 6'-3").
Even though the 3rd line's scoring was down in 2012, they actually had better puck possession than previous years. And when you have the puck, you simply don't hit as much.
I do agree with your last paragraph. Time will tell - hopefully.
Let me clear that up: I don't expect 20 goals from a 3rd liner, but after watching his rookie year I thought it was reasonable to assume that if he continued to develop he could take the next step in his career and be a top-six forward or at the very least see an increase in his ice-time, perhaps in a more prominent offensive role. Remember, heading into last season no one thought Stalberg would be a top-six forward (and if they did, they might as well played the lottery) but Bickell was coming off a great year and looked like he was poised to receive a bigger role with the team. Obviously, it didn't happen. With the ice-time he received last year and the role he was in, there's no way I would expect 20 goals.
If he plays a full season this year, I would be happy to see 10-12 goals out of him, max.
I don't think Ladd or Brouwer are really comparable to Bickell. Those two are different players in themselves as well. Bickell has a better shot than both, but Ladd was better defensively and Brouwer was a better hitter. Either way, I'd take both of those guys back if I had the choice between picking two out of the three.
Ladd and Bickell don't compare well at all. Like Ton said Ladd is better defensively but he doesn't like a hitting game, yeah he hits but he's the guy you want in the corners fighting for the puck not just slamming bodies. And personally I think Ladd has better hockey smarts.
But I admit I have a boner for Ladd...
To be fair, he did have a shot on goal and a hit in the Red Wings Easter game.
He also passed the puck directly to the Red Wings forward and almost trip on the freaking puck.
I guess not as bad as shooting the puck in your own goal.
BTW. I have never seen that before Easters Game.
Beyond that, what did he do? Bring up a guy from the minors and give them a chance.
My observation is that Bickell seems to be forever chasing the puck, behind the play and not in it. I am surprised someone hasn't thrown a lawn chair on the ice when Bickell is on it, because most times Bickell is just another spectator. Watching the plays as they go by him.
And I know one game is not a good sample size, but I liked what I saw of Morin.
We have enough people that can replace him.
Stalberg needs to try and find him a bit more. I love Stalberg but he does have an issue with shooting the puck a bit too much instead of being a bit more patient. I say Stalberg needs to find him becaue it always looks as if Stalberg is carrying the play and the puck on that line.